Spanda
Under researchComputational results reproducible · bench validation pending

The findings.

Every number here comes from the program's code and results, not a summary slide — and every one is reproducible. The headline: enforcing one law of physics exposes large, systematic, cross-organism errors in the way cells are modelled today.

Audit of JCVI-syn3A · 77 reactions with thermodynamic data
70%
violate detailed balance
by more than 3-fold
27%
point the wrong way
21 of 77 reversed at standard state
12-fold
median violation
across all flagged reactions
5 / 10
glycolytic steps reversed
12 persist at physiological levels
Finding 01 · the smoking gun

Glycolysis, step by step.

For each glycolytic reaction, the equilibrium constant implied by the model's kinetics versus the one demanded by thermodynamics. Where they cross 1.0 in opposite directions, the model is running the reaction backwards.

EnzymeΔG° (kJ/mol)K_eq · kineticK_eq · thermoDiscrepancyDirection
Aldolase
FBA
+22.45.121.0e-442,886×↔ reversed
Lactate dehydrogenase
LDH_L
-26.80.97048,74350,217×↔ reversed
Phosphoglycerate mutase
PGM
+4.531.000.160192×↔ reversed
Triose-phosphate isomerase
TPI
+5.611.340.110107×↔ reversed
G3P dehydrogenase
GAPD
+4.66.010.16038×↔ reversed
Phosphoglycerate kinase
PGK
-22.164.702421.0037×✓ agrees
Phosphofructokinase
PFK
-14.6322.90361.101.1×✓ agrees
Enolase
ENO
+1.22.654.651.8×✓ agrees

K_eq · kinetic is implied by the published model's forward/reverse rates; K_eq · thermo is computed from eQuilibrator standard Gibbs energies. Source: the program's detailed-balance reversibility audit.

Finding 02 · the falsifiable one

A prediction the bench can kill.

Lactate dehydrogenase is where the disagreement is sharpest — and where it is testable. The two models predict opposite metabolic fates for the same cell.

pyruvate + NADH + H⁺ ⇌ L-lactate + NAD⁺
Thermodynamic model
564 : 1
lactate : pyruvate
K_eq = 48,743
Published kinetic model
0.011 : 1
lactate : pyruvate
K_eq = 0.97
The disagreement50,000×

The test — Measure lactate and pyruvate in JCVI-syn3A culture supernatant by LC-MS or NMR. A ratio ≫ 1 confirms the thermodynamic model; a ratio near 1 supports the kinetic one.

The biology — Mycoplasma are textbook lactate fermenters — their primary carbon waste is lactate, exactly what the thermodynamics predicts and the existing model does not.

Finding 03 · not a one-off

The same error, prokaryote to eukaryote.

Run the gold-standard audit on three independent, separately-built genome-scale models and the wrong-direction rate lands in a tight 13–17% band — and clears a shuffled-K_eq null (~40%) by many standard deviations every time.

OrganismDomainReversed (D4)Central metab.z-scorep-value
JCVI-syn3A
455 genes · 338 rxns
Prokaryote · minimal cell16.8%
21/125
27.3%-7.912.5×10⁻¹⁵
E. coli iML1515
1,515 genes · 2,712 rxns
Prokaryote · fully-capable16%
16/100
40%-4.663.1×10⁻⁶
S. cerevisiae · Yeast-GEM v9
~6,000 genes · 4,131 rxns
Eukaryote · 14 compartments13%
13/100
-5.796.9×10⁻⁹

7,181 reactions audited at the structural tier; 325 at the D4 gold standard shown above. Negative z indicates far fewer thermodynamically-consistent reactions than chance. Source: cross-organism universality analysis.

Finding 04 · the honest ledger

Emergent, engineered, or not yet.

The whole thesis rests on which behaviours fall out of the physics versus which we put in by hand. So we publish the distinction, line by line — including what isn't wired in yet.

Engineered
Detailed balance k_f/k_r = e^(−ΔG/RT)

The central axiom of the framework — by construction, not emergent.

Emergent
Metabolic bistability (persister-like states)

Appears with the invariant ON; disappears under a detailed-balance-violated null control.

Emergent
Three death modes (starve / knockout / poison)

No death logic is written; collapse follows from the chemistry — reproduce it live in the simulator.

Emergent*
~105-min cell cycle

Division at the Young-Laplace instability from measured constants — but timescale calibration is uncertain; reported with two options side-by-side.

Emergent
Cross-organism universality of violations

Independent datasets (syn3A, E. coli, yeast); significant against a shuffled-K_eq null.

Partial
Gene-essentiality correlation

Partly recapitulates the proteomics used to initialise it; quantified with a uniform-IC control.

Not yet
Dynamic ribosome biogenesis

Ribosome pool is held static in this version; a dynamic module is built but not yet wired in.

Not yet
FtsZ division-ring dynamics

Implemented separately; not yet coupled to the main cell-cycle loop.

* Emergent, but the timescale calibration is uncertain; reported with two calibration options side-by-side.

The one experiment that settles it costs one metabolomics run.

That is the bridge between a strong computational result and a validated one — and where backing makes the difference.